The Amazing Amazon Stock Bubble









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The online retailer’s shares are valued at more than three times Apple’s and more than two times Google’s. and there’s no reason why.

Whenever a stock can potentially drop 50% and still be considered overvalued, that’s when you know the stock is a bubble. Amazon (AMZN) far surpassed bubble territory ages ago but investors still continue to plunge billions of dollars into the company. if the stock were to crash to $80 a share today from $164, it would still be trading at a significantly richer valuation than Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) or even Research in Motion (RIMM).

While Amazon continues to execute at a very high level – yesterday it reported better than expected sales growth of 39% and earnings growth of 16% — the stock still trades at a very lofty 67 P/E ratio. That’s more than triple Apple’s 20.1 P/E ratio, or Google’s 24.6 P/E ratio. Even more striking is that the company trades at 2.31 times its expected 5-year growth rate, which indicates that the stock has gotten way ahead of itself. Ideally, a company should trade at no more than a 1:1 PEG ratio unless the company has a consistently proven track record (like Apple) of far exceeding analyst expectations.

Analysts expect Amazon to report earnings of roughly $2.59 in earnings per share on $33.3 billion in revenue in fiscal 2010 compared to $3.57 in EPS on $41.63 billion in revenue for fiscal 2011. Based on these estimates, the company is expected to grow at a roughly 37.8% pace next year. yet, the stock trades nearly 46 times next year’s earnings. while Amazon is trading at only a slight premium to its 12-month expected growth rate, the loftiness in its valuation arises out of three distinct issues.

Amazon vs. Apple

First, when looking farther out, analysts are modeling for a more tempered 25% growth rate for Amazon over the next five years. Based on this expectation, the stock shouldn’t be trading at a significantly higher premium than 25 times next year’s earnings. This is exactly why, though Apple is expected to grow at a pace of 35% in 2011, the company trades at only 15 times 2011 earnings. Analysts expect Apple to grow at a pace of 19.2% over the next 5-year period and as a result, it trades at a fair 20.1 trailing P/E ratio.

Which brings us to our second, and more important problem for Amazon’s current lofty valuation. why should someone pay 46 times next year’s earnings for Amazon at when they could buy Apple at mere 15 times next year’s earnings, Google at 19 times or Research in Motion at only 8 times next year’s earnings? Why should Amazon be given a more lofty valuation when analysts not only expect roughly the same out of Apple over the coming five years, but the stock trades at only a third of Amazon’s outlandish valuation?

It absolutely makes no sense, especially when one considers the fact that Amazon has far underperformed on both the top and bottom line when compared to Apple. While companies are valued based on future expectations, there’s something to be said about how a company is actually performing. Especially when what is expected out of all four of these companies is more or less the same.

While Apple’s top line growth has been accelerating over the past year, Amazon’s growth rate has been decelerating. On the top line, Apple posted roughly 31% growth in calendar Q4 2009, 48% in Q1 2010, 61% in Q2 2010 and 66% in its recently reported calendar Q3 2010. Amazon, by comparison, grew its top line at a pace of 40% in Q4 2009, 45% in Q1 2010, 41% in Q2 2010 and roughly 39% in Q3 2010. Yet, while Apple continued to struggle with a P/E ratio ranging from 15-20 over the past year, Amazon consistently traded between a 55-70 P/E—nearly three times the valuation placed on Apple.

And while earnings is the key determinative factor in valuation, top line growth in many ways is far more important than earnings per share. A company can always reduce costs and improve margins to move more of its revenue to the bottom line, but the hard part is actually producing, marketing and selling a product that people want to buy. It’s much harder to make money than to cut costs, and sophisticated investors know this.

Yet, that being said, Apple is outperforming Amazon on the bottom line as well — by a much larger magnitude than on the top line. while Amazon has been posting growth in the range of 13%-63% over the past year, Apple has grown at a pace of between 47%-86% over the past four quarters. and in 2009, the disparity between the two companies was even more pronounced. In fact, in this recent earnings season, Amazon grew at the slowest pace of the “four horsemen,” despite having the highest valuation. RIM, which only trades at an 8 P/E ratio, grew at a significantly faster pace of 40% this quarter—compared to Amazon’s anemic 16%.

Finally, when analyzing enterprise value (Market Capitalization minus Cash & Cash Equivalents) and the return on equity, it becomes strikingly apparent just how overvalued Amazon really is compared to Apple, Google and Research in Motion. if some company were to purchase all four of these companies, it would get the lowest return on equity with Amazon. For the $68 billion used to purchase Amazon, the buyer would have only returned 1.6% on the investment over the past year at the current enterprise value.

With a straight purchase of Apple at a $231 billion, by comparison, it would have yielded a return of almost 6.1% or nearly 3.81 times the return from Amazon. For Research in Motion, a purchase of the company for $23 billion would yield a return of 8.7%, and for Google, an outright purchase of $162 billion would yield a return of 4.6%. This is based on what each of these companies actually earned over the course of the past year at the current enterprise value.

Obviously, future earnings are more important than past performance, but analysts are generally modeling for similar growth rates for each of these companies going forward. This suggests that these results won’t be substantially different next year than they would have been this year.

The bottom line is this: Amazon trades at more than three times Apple’s current valuation, eight times RIM’s valuation and just about two and a half times Google’s valuation. This is simply way too high. Nothing in the company’s performance supports the current price level. when RIM was trading at $150 a share, sophisticated investors knew the stock was a bubble. This case is no different. there is no matter of ‘if’ in this analysis. It’s a matter of ‘when.’ Amazon will lose 50% of its value over the coming years. At $150-$160 a share, investors are flirting with financial suicide.

Don’t short bubbles, and don’t buy bubbles. Just get out of the way.

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51 Responses to “The Amazing Amazon Stock Bubble”
  1. burdi 27 October 2010 at 6:37 pm #

    Might I suggest that earnings growth for individuals is proportional to the willingness to re-locate?

  2. lard ainam 27 October 2010 at 11:54 pm #

    Head of Marketing – Online Retailer – London United Kingdom…

  3. ramenz 28 October 2010 at 1:20 am #

    BlackBerry Bold 9780 announced: Waterloo, ON – Research In Motion (RIM) (NASDAQ: RIMM; TSX: RIM) today introduc…

  4. filick 28 October 2010 at 6:59 am #

    Q: Frenny Bawa, Managing Director, RIM India: For Research in Motion (RIM), the maker of the popular BlackBerry sm…

  5. iglans 28 October 2010 at 8:11 pm #

    Blackberry ‘Bold 9780′ launched by Research In Motion

  6. ura 29 October 2010 at 11:18 am #

    Beta version of Facebook 1.9 released for BlackBerrys: Research In Motion recently released an updated version of …

  7. halesa 29 October 2010 at 5:05 pm #

    Colgate sees earnings growth slowing in 2011: Colgate-Palmolive said 2011 earnings-per-share growth would slow to mid-single digits as…

  8. shurdenpon callino 29 October 2010 at 6:36 pm #

    Stifel Says Buy Goldcorp – Firm believes gold production and earnings growth will remain strong, ups rating on minin…

  9. heinolivia 30 October 2010 at 2:25 pm #

    Asian Stocks Decline for Second Week on Concern Earnings Growth Will Slow

  10. puciesbiet nick 31 October 2010 at 4:51 am #

    A Cheap Chinese Stock Posting +300% Earnings Growth

  11. schler 31 October 2010 at 6:05 am #

    The returns you will get from your stock funds can only come from four things, they note: Dividends, earnings growth, inflation and changes in valuation.

  12. beaupt 31 October 2010 at 9:03 am #

    BlackBerry 101 user guide for the BlackBerry Bold 9780…:   Research in Motion continues to gear up for the launch …

  13. lee 31 October 2010 at 4:05 pm #

    RIM needs to put their Research In Motion

  14. but spiero 1 November 2010 at 8:23 am #

    Online Retailer Brings Much-Needed Levity to National Tax Debate: ‘60 Minutes’ Interviews iStores Owner about Wash…

  15. haila 1 November 2010 at 10:28 am #

    I believe the RIM Blackberry has the encryption needed for business. Noting here RIM (Research in Motion) is a Canadian company.

  16. trouttiero stableycut 1 November 2010 at 12:35 pm #

    Egham Jobs: Director, Customer Support Operations EMEA: Research in Motion – Egham, Surrey – Research In Moti…

  17. blanevors hance 1 November 2010 at 1:49 pm #

    Asian Stocks Decline for Second Week on Concern Earnings Growth Will Slow: By Hanny Wan – Sat Oct 30 01:14:26 GMT …

  18. shid 1 November 2010 at 6:39 pm #

    The Early History of Research In Motion

  19. sgn 2 November 2010 at 2:26 am #

    Asian Stocks Decline for Second Week on Concern Earnings Growth Will Slow – Bloomberg

  20. lemery rom 2 November 2010 at 3:00 am #

    Why are people so against corporations? They provide the jobs and the growth, think Apple, Research In Motion (Blackberry). People complain they’re aren’t enough jobs, yet they complain about corporations.

  21. ben clasier 2 November 2010 at 10:35 pm #

    Most popular online retailer for Viagra. We guaranteed next day delivery for all orders wherever possible.

  22. rizarevoet quiez 3 November 2010 at 1:27 am #

    RIM entgeht Blackberry-Verbot in Indien: Nachdem sich Research in Motion (RIM) Mitte Oktober b…

  23. sapoling nilcox 3 November 2010 at 6:36 pm #

    Android Revolution May Overwhelm BlackBerry: The Android army may soon claim Research In Motion's BlackBerry as it…

  24. jord 5 November 2010 at 9:53 am #

    Anyone know of any good pre-order deals? Also, at which online retailer may I have a chance at getting Black Ops a day or two early?

  25. daviegless emmondo 5 November 2010 at 10:35 pm #

    Symbian is the OS used by most Nokia handsets and Research in Motion is Blackberry.

  26. lauveni 8 November 2010 at 8:41 pm #

    isn’t it a bit late for world’s biggest online retailer?

  27. guilandy dutterson 11 November 2010 at 9:44 pm #

    ‘But after users on the mico-blogging site Twitter called for the online retailer to pull the book’… Wow, the power of Twitter ;)

  28. ker lindorf 12 November 2010 at 4:50 pm #

    PS: As I write this there was a rumor an online retailer was considering doing just such a thing. I just forget whether is was Apple or Steam.

  29. astin 17 November 2010 at 11:08 am #

    I've heard that Research In Motion plans to introduce a bigger version of the BlackBerry PlayBook in the second half of 2011.

  30. koerneman gaerto 18 November 2010 at 9:51 am #

    It is strange that good games like Singularity got such a limited release, and weren’t even available on Steam.

  31. corrakavar cia 20 November 2010 at 2:05 am #

    Anywhere. If they take MasterCard, then they display it somewhere and you can use this form.

  32. ishak 20 November 2010 at 4:24 am #

    A Blackberry is a Blackberry. RIM is the manufacture, they make Blackberry's internationally. You're a techie and you don't know that?

  33. strot pabl 20 November 2010 at 9:03 am #

    I have no idea
    my you need to search some site about it

  34. party 20 November 2010 at 8:52 pm #

    If you have grounds to dispute a charge, just dispute it using your lender's procedures.

  35. gadsenbuis maznandi 21 November 2010 at 12:27 am #

    Call the 800# on the back of the card and see if they can help.

  36. rehlman selier 21 November 2010 at 5:07 am #

    No, not that I know of.
    Perhaps you've never been sent my advisory on fighting VN's – but you WILL!

  37. shender 21 November 2010 at 7:07 am #

    just buy it where you see it in stores! 2.50 isnt much… also, try to drink tea instead of energy drinks — the energy drinks are very bad for you.

  38. melet 21 November 2010 at 3:22 pm #

    Probably Citylink or DPD, from my experience from buying from places like that e.g overclockers etc it was always city link or dpd.

  39. grenew molo 22 November 2010 at 5:08 pm #

    Ebook may be involved inFlorida copycat murder case

  40. mille maye 23 November 2010 at 9:03 pm #

    easier to return to stores than an online retailer

  41. peau 24 November 2010 at 1:18 am #

    Ratio helps investors find cheap dividend stocks with strong earnings growth

  42. schez 24 November 2010 at 8:32 am #

    Warner Brothers said, “It is generally understood that the primary consumer for these products is an adult, usually a collector.”

  43. chelucki 24 November 2010 at 9:36 am #

    Months ago on Facebook I asked “If you become employed with Research in Motion, does that mean you’ve gotten a RIM job?”. Apparently the answer is yes.

  44. rapco 24 November 2010 at 3:03 pm #

    Hi Susan, please contact Smythe directly for this inquiry. I am not an online retailer.

  45. nawa ster 25 November 2010 at 3:06 am #

    RELATIVELY HIGH PROJECTED EARNINGS GROWTH IN THE PUBLISHING INDUSTRY DETECTED …: Nov 22, 2010 (SmarTrend(R) News Watch via COMTEX) …

  46. slaval 25 November 2010 at 3:08 am #

    Don’t Look Now Greg But…

  47. segardinge weller 25 November 2010 at 2:19 pm #

    Writing Project for Online Retailer by captainluc

  48. judingeric 25 November 2010 at 8:14 pm #

    Research in Motion has pulled support for Kik Messenger from its BlackBerry platform, citing breach of contractual obligations, the company confirmed Tuesday.

  49. gagnet 26 November 2010 at 2:51 am #

    Blackberry es Research in motion

  50. berne 26 November 2010 at 6:43 am #

    No I haven't heard of it!?!?!

  51. dilla mumm 26 November 2010 at 11:08 am #

    Tey are called touchable bubbles

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